By Joost Lagendijk - Russian President Vladimir Putin and Islamic State (IS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi have involuntarily thrown a lifeline to NATO.
Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Western defense organization has been struggling with its raison d'être. Whether or not one agrees with the alleged scale of the Soviet threat during the Cold War, it was clear to everybody that NATO was there to protect the territorial integrity of its member states. Because in the last two decades nobody expected the Russians to attack any of its western neighbors, NATO was forced to reform the armed forces under its command and focus increasingly on sending troops to other parts of the world where NATO presumably had an interest in restoring or keeping the peace (Balkans, Afghanistan).
These days, NATO is having one of its regular summits in Wales. Until a few months ago, there was a lot of speculation and discussion in security circles about new, effective ways to prevent the alliance from sinking into oblivion, at least in public perception. Russia's annexation of Crimea and its aggressive policies in eastern Ukraine plus the daily horror-show by the IS in Iraq and Syria have, however, drastically changed NATO's agenda.
NATO's outgoing secretary-general, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, made it clear that NATO is still committed to protecting all of its members against outside aggression. He also underlined the obligation of the international community to stop jihadist violence in the Middle East. US President Barack Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameron went one step further in a joint opinion article. They argued that both Russia's “ripping up the rulebook” and the IS's terrorist actions are an immediate threat to the security of NATO members.
So what can we expect NATO to decide on this new double threat and what would be the implications for Turkey?
On Ukraine, it does not seem likely that Obama and Cameron will get their way. Several big European NATO members don't want to provoke Putin, also because they believe Russia cannot be pushed back militarily. Instead, NATO will adopt the so-called Readiness Action Plan (RAP) that established a 4,000-soldier-strong rapid reaction force that is able to act within 48 hours. It should assure the Baltics that NATO will not leave them out in the cold when Putin decides, one day, to repeat the Ukraine scenario in Latvia or Estonia, two countries with substantial ethnic Russian minorities. NATO will leave the diplomatic path to the EU and the US, which are preparing tighter sanctions banning Russian defense and oil companies from European and American capital markets.
For Turkey, NATO's new “spearhead” force and upgraded rhetoric on Russia don't have many immediate consequences. The danger is in the strengthened EU-US economic and financial measures against Russia where Turkey runs the risk of becoming, again, a sanctions-buster. After its dubious dealings with Iran, it would not be good for Turkey's standing in Europe and the US if Ankara were to be seen as actively undermining efforts to punish Russia for its reckless behavior.
On the IS, the challenges for Turkey are much bigger and more complicated. Nobody expects NATO or the US and the UK to intervene directly in Iraq or Syria. Washington, with the help of London, Paris and Berlin, will keep on supporting the Kurds in their fight against the IS. For more action against the brutal jihadists, NATO is looking to friendly nations in the region, pushing them to form a coalition of the willing to confront the IS. Be sure, Obama will ask President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Wales what Turkey's position is on this and US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel will repeat the question when he comes to Turkey after the NATO summit. As I wrote before, Turkey can no longer hide behind the 49 hostages or claim that it is, finally, seriously working to close the Turkey-Syria border to IS militants, weapons and oil.
After this summit where NATO tried to reinvent itself, the pressure on Turkey to take the lead in a broadly supported anti-IS coalition will grow. The new Turkish leadership will have to prove that Turkey is still, despite all the frequent anti-Western diatribes and the ideological preferences of its leaders, a trusted NATO ally.
Published on Today's Zaman
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